#nottheend

The purpose of this blog has been to explore the risks that changing sea level poses coastal communities around the world. Over the course of it a number of topics, as well as regions, have been covered. As well as this, I feel that the blog benefited from the broad range of topics covered which spanned from physics and environmental science to politics and economics.

I quite enjoyed the freedom that I gave myself at the outset, not having a set agenda of topics, but instead enabling myself to blog about issues which I thought appropriate. My thoughts and opinions changed and developed over time thanks to engagement with both the academic and popular literature.

My use of the internet and social media has helped me keep up to date with issues relating to sea level which were being published and discussed around the world. Twitter helped me in two ways; firstly as a method to explore sea level issues which were trending and secondly, to publicise the blog to followers and the wider science community. It is thanks to this I feel that my blog received a large number of views from all over the world. I hope everyone who has read the blog thought it was both enjoyable and thought-provoking. Intriguingly, my most popular posts, BANNED - Sea Level Rise and "Everybodytalks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it", have been the ones which I have found most fascinating to research and discuss.

At this point I would also like to thank those who have commented on posts, asking probing questions and offering interesting information. I don’t think though that simply because the assigned blogging period is up that I will cease to update the blog and follow sea level issues which I have come to learn so much about. Although updates may be more dispersed, I still would encourage you to continue following the blog.

Should I stay or should I go?

You may remember the post Threat posed to islands in the Western Pacific in November which explored how climate change is affecting these low lying islands. If this region interests you I recommend taking a look at Kate Price’s recent blog post Rising Sea levels, Raising water issues in Tuvalu which, as the title suggests, puts the spotlight on Tuvalu. 

In this piece, she covers nicely the issues which the nation faces as a result of rising sea levels. Notably, discussion of the scarce freshwater resources available and potential solutions to the problem, as well as the issue of migration which could see Tuvaluans becoming ‘environmental refugees’. Unfortunately this, as you will discover, is becoming a very real option that many are having to face up to.

New solution floated for the Maldives

No it's not quite the 1st of the month just yet. It's not even April! But the apparent appearance of this idea to be some kind of April fool's joke is too tempting. Nevertheless, the idea does appear to be an environmentally friendly option due to the collaboration with nature but it would come at a high price. The Maldive government have hired the Dutch architecture firm Waterstudio to design a series of floating islands as a solution to the effects of climate change.

I'll let you make up your own mind with this one.

The Maldives under invasion

As alluded to in my previous post, the Maldives is an island nation seriously threatened at present by ongoing changes to the climate and the oceans. Mohamed Nasheed, president from 2008 to 2012, was interviewed for the short film below, Small Islands, Big Impact, in which he speaks of his nation’s plight and asks for much needed international efforts of cooperation and change. He notes problems of coastal erosion as well as reductions in tuna catches due to warming oceans. The injustice of the situation has been realised now that the people know that the part they play in causing the change is tiny compared to the rest of the world.

Not only does Nasheed feel that climate change is a human rights issue, he also argues for its case quite understandably as an environmental issue, but also as a security issue. Consequently, he likens international support for Poland in the 30s, and Vietnam in the 50s and 60s, to the defence needed for his nation today. During his Presidency, he attempted to mitigate climate change and bring it to the public’s attention by appearing on American TV shows such as The Daily Show and the Late Show with David Letterman.

Maldives underwater conference a publicity stunt

Ahead of the 2009 UN climate change conference in Copenhagen, an underwater conference was held in which Maldivian ministers signed a document calling for other nations to cut their carbon emissions (BBC 2009). Quite importantly, at the 2009 climate talks, plans were announced by Nasheed to eliminate or offset all of the nations greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2020! You may this is a massive change but it is supported by the argument that:

"For us swearing off fossil fuels is not only the right thing to do, it is in our economic self-interest…Pioneering countries will free themselves from the unpredictable price of foreign oil; they will capitalize on the new green economy of the future, and they will enhance their moral standing giving them greater political influence on the world stage." (President Mohamed Nasheed 2009)

Migration is, and has been, an option for those at risk of rising sea levels in the Maldives. In 2008 Nasheed announced plans to purchase land in Sri Lanka, India, and even Australia as a result (Ramesh 2008). This though would obviously come at a great price, both financially and culturally. He explained his reasoning for these quite significant plans:

“We do not want to leave the Maldives, but we also do not want to be climate refugees living in tents for decades”

Efforts therefore have also seen the building of a 3 metre high concrete wall around the capital, Malé, at a cost of $63 million which was effectively paid for with Japanese aid money (BBC 2004). Additionally, forestation efforts have been implemented in order to reduce the effects of coastal erosion while environmental science is given high priority in all schools.

While traditionally attempts at adaptation have seen the building of physical barriers to the sea, Nasheed believes the most important issue today is that of good governance. The Maldives has recently become a democracy and without this system of good governance, he feels that vital resources would be wasted in the future when the impacts of climate change intensify.

References

BBC (2004) ‘Maldives: paradise soon to be lost’ (WWW), London: BBC News (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3930765.stm; 30 December 2012).

BBC (2009) ‘Maldives cabinet makes a splash’ (WWW), London: BBC News (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8311838.stm; 30 December 2012).

Nasheed, M. (2009) ‘Climate change gridlock: where do we go from here? part 1’ (WWW), Oakland, CA: Radio Project (http://www.radioproject.org/2011/06/climate-change-gridlock-where-do-we-go-from-here-part-1; 30 December 2012).

Ramesh, R. (2008) ‘Paradise almost lost: Maldives seek to buy a new homeland’ (WWW), London: The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/nov/10/maldives-climate-change; 30 December 2012).

Will it be Paradise Lost?

What comes to mind when you think of the Maldives? You might be thinking an exotic holiday destination? Tropical islands, beautiful coral reefs, and long white sandy beaches. Hotels on stilts stretching out into the Indian Ocean? Paradise? Or even those islands which constantly crop up in the news as hotspots feeling the effects of climate change?

Figure 1. Paradise in the Maldives?

The problem is that the Republic of the Maldives, as it is formally known, is the flattest country on Earth. Made up of 1,192 islands and home to a population of over 328,000, the Maldives and its people are extremely vulnerable to changes in sea level. For them, the prospect that the majority of their land surface could be underwater by the end of the century is very real (Woodworth 2005). While no point exceeds 3 metres elevation, much of the land surface (80%) lies below 1 metre above sea level.

Of the 1,1192 islands, 358 are inhabited, yet much of the population live close to the capital Malé located on the North Malé Atoll. In fact, about one-third of residents live there making it an excessively densely populated island (NAPA 2007). As alluded to above, tourism plays a major role in the local economy with over 600,000 tourist visits per year but this brings with it its own burdens on local communities (Tol 2007).

Sea level rise threatens homes, businesses and infrastructure that are forced to locate on the coast. As you know, sea levels are rising and it is on islands like these that miniscule changes can have major effects in the form of land inundation. For example, over 90 of the inhabited islands experience annual flooding (NAPA 2007). Another issue is freshwater resources which are scarce due to the shallow groundwater aquifers that are themselves at risk of seawater inundation with increased extraction. The government provides freshwater to 87% of the population through rainwater collection but during the dry season, and for non-drinking purposes, water is still required (UNEP 2005).

Figure 2. Reality many increasingly face

Scientists have suggested that 77% of the land would be lost by 2100 if mid-level estimates of sea level rise, 0.5 metres, are realised (Woodworth 2005). If this was exceeded and the country experienced a 1 metre rise it would have almost disappeared underwater by 2085! Serious measures have to be taken. Measures which the Maldive government are taking as their primary concern in addition to efforts to highlight the threat climate change poses in order for global community action. These attempts of mitigation and adaption will be examined next time.

References

NAPA (2007) ‘National adaptation programme of action’, Ministry of Environment, Energy and Water: Republic of Maldives.

Tol, R.S.J. (2007) ‘The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND’, Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change, 12, 741–53.

UNEP (2005) ‘Maldives post–tsunami environmental assessment’, UN Environmental Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.

Woodworth, P.L. (2005) ‘Have there been large recent sea level changes in the Maldive Islands?’, Global and Planetary Change, 49, 1-18.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming raises sea level fears

So thankfully the world didn't come to a dramatic end this week as the Mayan's had (possibly) predicted all those years ago. What is not such great news is that a new article published online a few days ago, just to lighten up our Christmases, has shone a great deal of attention to Antarctic warming and global sea level rise.

The Bromwich et al. (2012) study in Nature Geoscience attempted to iron out uncertainties over the magnitude, seasonality and extent of warming that is widely assumed to have been occurring in the West Antarctic region since the 1950s. The problem was that temperature records relied on observations from the Bryd Station, found in the centre of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which were incomplete. The new research used computer modelling and analysis of the atmosphere to fill in these gaps.

Figure 1. Antarctica  

It has been found that the region is warming twice as fast as was previously thought. The report noted a ‘linear increase in annual temperature between 1958 and 2010 by 2.4 ± 1.2 °C’, which makes it one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world (Bromwich et al. 2012). Interestingly, and what is of great importance, is that summer temperatures were found to be increasing. This has implications for surface melting of the ice sheet. It has previously been suggested that warm ocean currents were the main contributor of ice loss in the West Antarctic (Pritchard et al. 2012). Thus basal, rather than surface melting, was thought to be key. Now, one can only speculate that surface melting will play a greater role to accelerate ice sheet loss.

I feel that the implications this could have on global sea level are enormous. There is obviously the direct impact of increased meltwater making a greater contribution to sea level rise. However, there is also the indirect effect that this melt could have which would be similar to the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002. If the ice shelves were to collapse natural ice flow which is normally restrained, in glaciers for example, would be released into the ocean (Bromwich 2012).

This is one of the reasons the region has had so much attention - if all of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet were to melt sea level would rise by over 3 metres (BBC 2009)! While this may make recent changes appear miniscule in comparison, this should not be a reason to give up home in the battle against sea level rise. Instead, it should feed greater impetus for the war on anthropogenic climate change so that these drastic conditions are not realised.

References

BBC (2009) ‘Ice sheet melt threat reassessed’ (WWW), London: BBC News (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8050094.stm; 26 December 2012).

Bromwich, D. (2012) ‘‘Study shows rapid warming on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet’ (WWW), Ohio: The Ohio State University Research News (http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/byrdwarm.htm; 26 December 2012).

Bromwich, D.H., J.P. Nicolas, A.J. Monaghan, M.A. Lazzara, L.M. Keller, G.A. Weidner and A.B. Wilson (2012) ‘Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth’ (WWW), Nature Geoscience (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1671.html; 26 December 2012).

Pritchard, H.D., S.R.M. Ligtenberg, H.A. Fricker, D.G. Vaughan, M.R. van den Broeke and L. Padman (2012) ‘Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves’, Nature, 485, 7395, 502-5.

The Ganges Delta - Sink or Swim?

The Ganges Delta, located in Southern Asia, covers parts of Bangladesh and the Indian state of West Bengal. Due to the densely populated nature of the region the delta, which covers around 87,300 km², is home to almost 111 million people (Ericson et al. 2005). It is no surprise then that it is the world’s most populated delta. The problem is that sea level rise, accelerated by the effects of global warming, is placing enormous stresses on the region’s already pressured land, water, and food resources.

Figure 1. Location of the Ganges Delta

As I have previously discussed, global sea level rise is increasing and it is placing certain areas at greater risk due to the non-uniform pattern of change around the world. Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to change as much of the country is covered by river plains and the coastal zone lies mostly below 5 metres elevation (Mohal et al. 2006). Parts of the delta have observed a local sea level rise of 25 mm/year which is in part due to their subsiding nature that results in relative changes (Ericson et al. 2005).

Figure 2. Satellite image of the delta

Humans have a direct role to play on this local scale as groundwater extraction can increase rates of subsidence (Ericson et al. 2005). Additionally, negative impacts on the environment come as a result of activities such as shrimp farming and river damming. Dams retain sediment which could help reduce subsidence downstream and also decrease the amount of freshwater that this land receives (IPCC 2007).

One of the key worries is that sea level rise will lead to ground and surface waters becoming increasingly saline. Saltwater intrusion could result in the displacement of plant and animal species in the coastal zone that rely on fresh or brackish water (IPCC 2007). Additionally, the salt water could increase the salinity of the presently fertile soil so that crops are endangered, as well as running the risk of food insecurity. With increased soil salinity, the growth of rice is inhibited and thus the yield is reduced (Castillo et al. 2003). Currently, the country’s rice crop is the world’s 4th largest so any changes could have a major implications for the nation which rely upon it (FAOSTAT 2012).

Another issue is the loss of land which has been predicted as a result of rising sea levels and subsidence. It has been predicted that 3 million people would be affected by changes by 2050 and a worse-case scenario is that by 2100, almost ¼ of Bangladesh’s land area (in 1989) could be lost (Castillo et al. 2003). This is a massive amount of land which is presently home to millions of people. The implications for this densely populated region would be enormous.

It should be noted that global warming is not just affecting sea levels in the region. Changes in the climate such as more variable precipitation could lead to more frequent flooding and droughts, as well as increased saltwater intrusion during the dry season (Mohal et al. 2006). Rising temperatures could also see rice production fall 8% by 2050 and wheat by 32% (Faisal and Parveen 2004). What can local people do to change these outcomes? At the moment the future looks uncertain and solutions are needed fast.

References

Castillo, E., T.P. Tuong, H.T.T. Trang, T.N.Q. Phuong (2003) ‘Phenological and physiological responses of a rice cultivar to level and timing of salinity stress’, in N. Preston and H. Clayton (eds) Rice-shrimp farming in the

Mekong Delta: Biophysical and Socioeconomic issues, Canberra: Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.

Ericson, J.P., C.J. Vorosmarty, S.L. Dingman, L.G. Ward and M. Meybeck (2005) ‘Effective sea-level rise and deltas: causes of change and human dimension implications’, Global Planetary Change, 50, 63-82.

Faisal, I.M. and S. Parveen (2004) ‘Food security in the face of climate change, population growth and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh’, Environmental Management, 34, 487-498.

FAOSTAT (2012) ‘Production, crops, Bangladesh’ (WWW), Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (http://faostat3.fao.org/home/index.html#VISUALIZE; 8 December 2012).

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Mohal,N., Z.H. Khan and N. Rahman (2006) ‘Impact of sea level rise on coastal rivers of Bangladesh’, Coast, Port and Estuary Division, Institute of Water Modelling, Bangladesh.